Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
CAMA Working Paper 55/2022, Australian National University, Canberra
CEPR Discussion Paper 17566, Centre for Economic Policy Research, London
Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Paper 2206, Koç University, Istanbul
MPRA Paper 114627, Munich University Library, Munich