Growth Returns, with Questions, in Emerging Europe and the CIS

Year
2012
Type(s)
Author(s)
Indermit S. Gill, Bryce Quillin, and Naotaka Sugawara
Source
Adaptability and Change: The Regional Dimensions in Central and Eastern Europe, edited by Gzegorz Gorzelak, Chor-Ching Goh, and Károly Fazekas, Pages 23-37. Warsaw: Wydawnictwo Naukowe Scholar. 2012
Url
http://www.euroreg.uw.edu.pl/en/publications,adaptability-and-change-the-regional-dimensions-in-central-and-eastern-europe

This covers the short term prospects and risks facing the Europe and Central Asia region. It discusses the projected 2010 and 2011 growth dynamics as well as elements of the quality of the growth. In particular, it focuses upon unemployment rates, which have remained high in the western part of the region (Central and Eastern Europe) and have not stopped rising in the eastern part (Central Asia and the South Caucasus). Rough calculation is that the region will not recover the jobs lost during the contraction until the end of 2012. Forecast for 2010 for the region is about 3.9%, ranging from a contraction of 4% for Kyrgyz Republic to 7% for Turkey and Turkmenistan. In addition to the variable character of recovery, there are two other points. The second is the jobless aspect of the recovery. Unlike GDP losses in the region which may be regained by 2011 in many countries, employment losses may take much longer. And the third point is the tentative nature of the recovery, dependent to a great extent upon recovery in Western Europe.